Proposed changes to the Teaching Excellence Framework (TEF) could exacerbate universities¡¯ precarious financial situation and lead to further mergers and institutional closures, analysts have warned.

New consultation documents published by the Office for Students (OfS) suggest that institutions rated gold and silver in the reformed quality assessment scheme would be eligible for additional funding and be subject to less regular assessments.

On the other hand, those rated bronze could be prevented from growing their student numbers until they can demonstrate higher quality ¨C a policy questioned by some.

¡°If the OfS is worried about the recent growth of some providers then it should work with the DfE to design targeted interventions based on hard evidence, not repackage an existing flawed measure of something else to give their proposal an air of legitimacy and objectivity,¡± said Tom Richmond, an education policy analyst.

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He said that the TEF is ¡°a completely inadequate measure of teaching excellence as it is, so the idea that this inadequate measure could now be used for some other purpose is seriously concerning¡±.

Some institutions have resorted to recruiting significantly higher numbers of international students in recent years to balance the books.

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That the proposals would only apply to the future growth of institutions, rather than address what Richmond described as the ¡°dramatic growth¡± of some providers in recent years, ¡°is another sign that these proposals will have little impact, if any, on the quality or sustainability of the sector¡±, he said.

Paul Ashwin, professor of higher education at Lancaster University, said the move could have serious consequences for some universities.

¡°If you¡¯re an institution and your strategy is to increase recruitment and you can¡¯t, then that could have big financial consequences for you, and then that could lead to forced mergers or potential closures.¡±

It comes days after the universities of Kent and Greenwich announced a merger, in part to shore up their finances.

However, Ashwin welcomed the proposal to remove the requirement to meet minimum thresholds for student progression as a condition of registration ¨C also known as B3 ¨C describing it as ¡°sensible¡±.

¡°For the TEF to work, it needs to be as simple as it can be, and really focus on robust measures of quality. The shift in the B3 condition does that a bit, but it¡¯s still probably trying to do more than it can realistically do,¡± he said.

The OfS also suggested the revised TEF ratings ¡°may be used to determine a provider¡¯s maximum fee limit¡±. Mandy Bentham, dean of students at London Metropolitan University, cautioned against this.

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¡°We know that universities are in a bit of a perilous time in terms of finances at the moment, and what are we saying if we want only those universities that get a gold or silver rating to be able to charge higher fees going forward?

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¡°We¡¯re basically saying to the sector, to the British public, that we don¡¯t value universities that have a widening participation agenda.¡±

She was also concerned about the suggestion that a university¡¯s rating will ¡°be based on the lower¡± of the multiple ratings that make up the TEF, rather than the ¡°best fit judgement¡± based on all of the evidence as done previously.

This could lead to a scenario where a university that gets gold in one rating but bronze in another would be given a bronze overall.

This ¡°could have financial implications [and] possibly shut down institutions which are gold for the student experience¡±, Bentham said.

An OfS spokesperson said that students want ¡°high-quality¡± teaching and resources, and that the proposals ¡°aim to make sure that every university and college registered with the OfS lives up to students¡¯ expectations¡±.

¡°As we set out in the consultation, we want to strongly encourage those that only deliver the minimum quality requirements to improve and deliver high quality.

¡°We¡¯re proposing that until those improvements have been made, it is in students¡¯ interests to have more opportunities to study at providers that are already delivering high quality.¡±

Education secretary Bridget Phillipson welcomed the proposals, saying they will ¡°ensure students know they¡¯ll get excellent teaching and universities will be held to account if they don¡¯t provide it¡±.

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juliette.rowsell@timeshighereducation.com