UK universities are gearing up for what is expected to be another ¡°cut-throat¡± student recruitment round, with little sign of elite institutions reining in efforts to take the lion¡¯²õ share of the domestic intake.

Amid intense financial pressure ¨C and declining international enrolments ¨C last year¡¯²õ crucial clearing period was characterised by Russell Group universities hoovering up a record proportion of students, with even highly competitive institutions such as the universities of Edinburgh and Manchester and King¡¯²õ College London offering places post results day.

This year¡¯²õ recruitment round is expected to be equally competitive after?a year in which major job cuts worsened, with potentially dire consequences for lower-tariff universities.

Ucas data released on 17 July showed a record?328,390 18-year-olds applied before the 30 June deadline, a 2.2 per cent increase on last year. The overall number of applicants was 665,070, a 1.3 per cent increase on 2024.?

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Gary Davies, pro vice-chancellor for student recruitment and business development at London Metropolitan University, said that Russell Group universities will look to ¡°grow¡± on their numbers from last year, adding that ¡°the government¡¯²õ saying they think there could be as many as 100,000 fewer A and A* grades this year¡±, which could see ¡°tens of thousands of students¡± miss their predicted grades.

However, he expects more students to see their places confirmed, even when they have fallen below requirements.?

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¡°I expect to see more and more students who have missed their grades at higher-tariff institutions just be accepted¡­It¡¯²õ the sort of behaviour we¡¯ve seen in low-tariff institutions for years. Why reject someone who¡¯²õ dead set on coming to you just because they haven¡¯t quite met the grades that you¡¯ve asked them to?¡±

Jessica Lister, director of consultancy Public First, agreed that she expects to see a ¡°big increase¡± in the number of offers made this year, as universities look to bolster their finances ahead of any major governmental changes to higher education, including proposals to introduce a 6 per cent levy on international student fees.

¡°I think everyone is going to be much less conservative about how many places they¡¯re offering out because, as much as possible, they just want to shore up recruitment before any future changes are made,¡± she said.?

Davies said this could pile more pressure on struggling institutions, and he said it could be ¡°cut-throat¡± for lower-tariff providers as the Russell Group continues to ¡°squeeze¡± the recruitment market. ¡°There are lots of post-92s that have had declining domestic recruitment for five plus years now, and it exacerbates the financial crisis because this is the core business,¡± he said.

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More than 2 million offers for undergraduate study have been made by universities and colleges already this year, the Ucas data revealed, a 3.8 per cent increase compared to last year. A total of 94.5 per cent of all students who applied before the January deadline are going into the results period having received at least one offer.

Anne Hill, assistant director of student recruitment at Birmingham City University, said recruitment continues to be ¡°a buyer¡¯²õ market¡±. Students are becoming increasingly ¡°savvy¡±, she said, and outlined that applicants are increasingly holding offers but then ¡°shopping elsewhere¡± for other options, making competition between universities stronger.

¡°Say you¡¯ve got a pot of a thousand students ¨C of those, 50 per cent may then decide that they¡¯re going to go elsewhere, even though they¡¯ve confirmed they¡¯re going to go into your university.

¡°Institutions are aware they have to compete in a clearing market, and it¡¯²õ not as easy as just saying, ¡®we¡¯ll close the doors on results day, and that¡¯²õ it, we¡¯re done¡¯.¡±

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Davies said that clearing is now better described as a ¡°summer recruitment¡± period, as many applicants now ¡°don¡¯t bother with the wider Ucas cycle¡±. While this greater choice and flexibility is good for students, ¡°it¡¯²õ harder for people like me to get bums on seats¡±, adding it¡¯²õ ¡°becoming harder and harder to predict exactly where you¡¯re going to land at the end of it¡±.?

While he said?student number caps?previously felt like ¡°trying to land a jumbo jet on an aircraft carrier¡±, Davies said that ¡°part of me hankers for that now, because it would control some of the more aggressive behaviour we¡¯ve seen in recent years¡±.?

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juliette.rowsell@timeshighereducation.com