Hundreds more staff face dismissal from Sydney universities amid dwindling prospects of the return of fee-paying international students.

The University of Technology Sydney (UTS) now expects to lose the equivalent of 400 to 500 full-time positions next year, doubling earlier job cut estimates. Vice-chancellor Attila Brungs has flagged a ¡°voluntary separation¡± programme with the aim of saying farewell to staff by mid-December.

¡°The scale and success of this programme will¡­be critical in determining financial projections for 2021 and 2022, and in determining what additional measures may be required, including additional job losses,¡± he told staff.

The job-loss estimates do not include fixed-term staff whose contracts have not been renewed because of coronavirus-induced reductions to budgets or workloads.

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Professor Brungs said there were indications of rising domestic demand at UTS, with more Australian students signing up for taught postgraduate programmes. Enrolments in the university¡¯s new online courses have been ¡°well above initial estimates¡±, he added.

But these positive signs will not alleviate the gloomy outlook for international enrolments, which last year earned the university more than A$470?million (?260?million) ¨C over 40?per cent of its income.

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Plans to bring planeloads of students to Australia have been postponed or scrapped, and vice-chancellors are now deferring hopes of large-scale arrivals to the second half of next year.

¡°Each month that passes without a pilot of the secure corridor for international students to return to Australia raises the likelihood our intake will be significantly diminished,¡± Professor Brungs warned staff. ¡°This necessitates increasing our preparation for a significantly poorer financial outlook for 2021 and 2022.¡±

He said that over the coming months, UTS would begin planning and consulting for ¡°broader organisational impacts¡±, including targeted redundancies throughout 2021.

The University of Sydney, which earned A$1.06?billion from international students¡¯ fees last year, also said rebounding domestic enrolments would not compensate for the continuing absence of foreign students.

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¡°An international student corridor will likely not be in place in time for a positive impact on our 2021 enrolments,¡± vice-chancellor Michael Spence told staff.

He said revenue projections for 2021 would have to be revised downwards. ¡°We are gathering as much information as possible¡­on ways to address the expected revenue shortfall for next year.¡±

Last month, UNSW Sydney announced plans to cut the equivalent of 493 full-time staff. A voluntary redundancy programme is under way, with forced retrenchments likely to follow.

This month, the University of Melbourne revealed plans to shed 450 full-time staff, while Monash University announced 277 voluntary redundancies in May. Such figures are thought to be dwarfed by the losses of uncounted casual and fixed-term staff.

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Education minister Dan Tehan acknowledged that universities faced a ¡°serious¡± challenge. ¡°They rely on income from international students, and obviously we cannot get international students into the country at the moment,¡± he told the?ABC.

¡°None of us saw what was coming with this pandemic. [It] has literally thrown the kitchen sink at everyone, including the university sector. They¡¯ve been cut off at the knees by what¡¯s happened with the international student market, but a lot of other businesses and organisations are also facing serious issues as a result of the pandemic.¡±

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john.ross@timeshighereducation.com