Higher-tariff universities in the UK have made ¡°noticeably¡± more offers to applicants this year, with overall offers likely to surpass last year¡¯s record levels, according to the chief executive of Ucas.

Speaking at the Higher Education Policy Institute¡¯s annual conference, Jo Saxton revealed that the number of offers made to applicants so far is trending three per cent higher than in the 2024 cycle, when offers to main scheme applicants .

While offer-making is higher for all types of universities, it is ¡°noticeably up in high-tariff institutions,¡± explained Saxton at the event in London on 12 June, noting how increases in offers in previous years had meant more students attending university.

With university applicants submitting their firm and insurance choices last week ahead of August¡¯s A-level results day, the Ucas chief¡¯s statement could suggest some universities ¨C particularly those from middle and lower tariff institutions ¨C will face significant difficulty filling their courses this summer.

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Applicant numbers increased?one per cent this year, latest figures show, meaning institutions are making more offers per student than last year.

With students enjoying more choice, there could be more pressure on some institutions in the upcoming admissions window.

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Over the past two recruitment cycles, the number of applicants accepted to high-tariff (more-selective) universities has risen from about 162,000 in 2022 to nearly 175,000 in 2024, while accepted applicants for less-selective institutions fell from 224,820 to 210,000, according .

Over that two-year period, acceptances to medium-tariff universities rose slightly from 176,300 to almost 180,000.

Three per cent more offers on last year¡¯s levels would represent an additional 60,000 offers in the system, which saw just under 565,000 students take up places last autumn.

With recruitment of international postgraduates expected to fall at many universities in coming years, the shift in undergraduate offer-making is likely to place further strain on lower-tariff institutions in particular, with many already announcing job cuts in response to growing financial pressures.

The financial challenges facing UK universities were also noted by Vivienne Stern, chief executive of Universities UK. In her keynote address to the conference, she explained how English universities will be significantly worse off from September, despite receiving an additional ?350 million from the lifting of the tuition fee cap, which will rise by ?285 to ?9,535 a year this autumn.

In fact, universities will be ?1.3 billion poorer in the next academic year given the removal of most level 7 apprenticeship funding?and the uplift in employers¡¯ national insurance contributions, she said.

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Many universities may face further difficulties depending on policy changes outlined in next month¡¯s post-16 education White Paper or by changes flowing from the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT)¡¯s strategy on the research system and universities¡¯ role within it, continued Stern.

¡°DSIT will set out a vision for the research system ¨C an extreme version of this might result in universities being put into boxes and government picking winners, whether that is institutions or types of institution,¡± said Stern, noting how research funding might be increasingly concentrated in certain institutions.

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¡°I am jumpy about government deciding what universities should and shouldn¡¯t do,¡± she said.

Universities should not, however, oppose changes if new ways of working ¨C such as greater collaboration with industry or other higher education institutions ¨C could result in them operating ¡°more efficiently and effectively in their missions¡±, said Stern.

¡°Universities should not resist growing financial change ¨C we should own it, lean into it. Change is part of our story ¨C our universities are consistently changing and change is good,¡± she said.

With?universities ¡°going through a period of radical change¡±, it is important for the sector to outline a ¡°compelling vision that brings government behind [universities]¡±, said Stern, who suggested higher education has lost support from both sides of British politics.

She said this might be remedied by ¡°presenting higher education as infrastructure [and] a platform to build prosperity¡±.

That vision must acknowledge that higher education should operate as a cohesive system, rather than simply relying on competition to drive improvement, said Stern. ¡°Are we OK that a system has been replaced by a market that leaves gaps? Do we need to recreate something that looks like a system?¡±

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jack.grove@timeshighereducation.com