Indonesia is set to overtake the US and Brazil as the third largest higher education system in the world by student numbers within a decade, according to a new report.

The paper, from the 51�Թ� consultancy team, found that as the global population continues to rise and the demand for advanced skills intensifies, universities will continue to see an expansion in enrolments, particularly in the big two of India and China.

Between 2023 and 2035, total enrolments across South Asia are projected to increase by 32 per cent (to 66 million), and by 36 per cent across East Asia (to 53 million). South-east and West Asia are also due to expand significantly over the next 10 years.

In comparison, the North American student population is due to increase only slightly from 12.7 million to 12.8 million over this time.

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The total number of both domestic and international students in the US is estimated to drop by 1 per cent by 2035. Russia is the only country among the largest 20 systems in the world expected to experience a larger drop of 9 per cent.

Lucia Costantini, lead data scientist at dataHE, said the stalling of enrolments, and the decline in share of global enrolments, is driven by a mix of population and enrolment rate shifts.

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“Undergraduate enrolment rates are growing among younger students, but the younger population is forecasted to decline slightly. For mature students, enrolment rates are trending downward, and smaller population increases are insufficient to sustain growth. Postgraduate enrolment shows a similar pattern.”

In comparison, enrolment rates in Indonesia are rising strongly across both undergraduate and postgraduate levels, which, combined with a growing population, is driving a significant increase in overall enrolments.

Currently the fifth largest higher education system, the South-east Asian country is forecasted to add 4.3 million students by 2035. With over 13 million students, this will move it ahead of the US and Brazil as the third largest – but it will remain well below the top two.

China’s student body will reach 47 million by 2035 and India’s will swell by 11 million, to 53 million.

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Elsewhere, the UK is expected to increase its total enrolments by 1.4 million – the 10th largest absolute increase in the world. Alongside Germany, it is the only European country forecast to experience significant growth.

“These patterns suggest a gradual global shift of HE demand and increasing competition among institutions not only nationally, but regionally and globally too,” says the report.

The only region of the world expected to decrease over the next decade is eastern Europe, with particularly large drop-offs in Albania (down 61 per cent), Belarus (56 per cent) and Lithuania (42 per cent).

Despite declining enrolments, the paper found that the US will increase its non-research income by $84 billion (£64 billion) by 2035 – more than any other sector. This is ahead of China ($83 billion), Germany ($55 billion) and the UK ($13 billion).

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Indonesia’s non-research income is predicted to rise by almost $6 billion to become the 11th largest in the world.

Researchers said high-volume systems, such as India and Indonesia, continue to prioritise affordability over revenue maximisation, keeping per-student income levels lower.

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patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com

The report will be discussed in further detail at a webinar on , and another