Published costings of Australian election commitments are riddled with heroic assumptions based on incompatible education policies, critics say.

As voting gets under way, commentators have ridiculed the estimated revenue gains from the major parties¡¯ plans to increase what are already the world¡¯s most expensive student visa application fees.

They say it is almost impossible to disentangle the upsides from the downsides in measures introduced for contradictory reasons ¨C boosting revenue from international students on one hand, while reducing international student numbers on the other.

The governing Labor Party says it will reap an extra A$760 million (?366 million) over four years by raising student visa fees from the current A$1,600 to A$2,000 in July. The Liberal-National party coalition has projected a A$3.093 billion windfall from its two-tiered visa charges of A$2,500 and A$5,000, although the extra earnings would be offset by a A$389 million loss from a reduction in new overseas student numbers.

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Critics say neither set of figures is credible. ¡°These imposts will not give them the numbers that they¡¯ve predicted,¡± said International Education Association of Australia chief executive Phil Honeywood.

English Australia chief executive Ian Aird said there would be no revenue boost from the sector he represents, after record visa refusals had turned the application process into a ¡°lottery¡±.

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¡°Visa applications for Elicos [English language intensive courses for overseas students] have fallen to their lowest level in 20 years due to the increase to A$1,600 last July,¡± he said. ¡°A further increase will¡­mean student visa applications simply stop coming.

¡°Students don¡¯t want to gamble on a A$2,000 roll of the dice. The last increase has already cost thousands of Australians their jobs. A further increase will certainly cost thousands more.¡±

Labor¡¯s revenue projection of A$180 million next financial year from its A$400 visa fee increase would require lodgement of 450,000 primary visa applications ¨C about 100,000 more than are likely this year, under current trends. The government wants to limit visa issuances to 270,000 a year ¨C a goal it appears likely to achieve, with applications already at a 10-year low in vocational education and close to a 20-year low in Elicos.

An IDP survey of more than 6,000 mostly prospective international students uncovered widespread concern about costs. Of the respondents who had ultimately abandoned their plans to study in Australia, 42 per cent cited the visa fee as the main reason.

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Andrew Norton, professor of higher education policy at Monash University, said there was no obvious way to balance the additional revenue from the higher application fee against the revenue hit from declining applications, let alone the reduced economic activity from fewer international students and the curtailed tax earnings from academics losing their jobs.

¡°There will be some economic impact, but I don¡¯t think anyone has got a model that will calculate a number that¡¯s credible,¡± Norton said.

He was particularly critical of costings around the government¡¯s proposed overhaul of student loan repayment arrangements, including 20 per cent debt forgiveness, and the coalition¡¯s opposition to that proposal. The costs from Labor¡¯s proposal and the savings from the coalition¡¯s obstruction had both been ¡°massively¡± understated, he said.

Norton said the metric used to gauge the budgetary impacts of loan scheme reforms ¨C ¡°¡± ¨C only took account of changes to indexation revenue. ¡°Using underlying cash balance simply does not disclose the core costs around the loan scheme.¡±

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Polling booths close at 6pm on 3 May. Final polls put Labor just ahead but it may need to rely on support from the Greens to stay in government.

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com